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October saw declines in crude oil production in Nigeria, Libya, and Venezuela, weakening the output targets set for the month by OPEC+, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners.
Despite prior agreements to raise production, OPEC’s total output increased by barely 30,000 barrels per day in October, a stark contrast to the 330,000 bpd increase reported in September, according to a Reuters report on Tuesday.
Nigeria’s crude production, which ranged from 1.3 million to 1.4 million barrels per day from January to June 2025, briefly increased to 1.5 million bpd in July before falling back to 1.4 million bpd in August and 1.3 million bpd in September, according to data from OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report for October that Channels Television was able to obtain.
The “crisis between the Dangote Refinery and the Nigeria Union of Petroleum and Natural Gas Workers as well as the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria” is the reason for the production decline, according to Bayo Ojulari, Group Chief Executive Officer of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited.
As investors reevaluated supply dynamics on Wednesday, oil prices fell due to weakness in the worldwide market and a stronger US currency.
By 5:08 a.m. WAT, Brent crude futures had dropped by 6 cents (0.1%) to $64.38 per barrel, a nearly two-week low. The OPEC Basket dropped 0.26 cents (0.39%) to $66.72 per barrel, while the U.S. West Texas Intermediate fell 10 cents (0.17%) to $60.46.
In a client note cited by Reuters, ANZ analysts stated, “The risk-off tone across markets saw investors exit energy markets.”
IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said, “Crude oil is trading lower… as risk sentiment shifted sharply negative, boosting the safe haven U.S. dollar, both of which weighed on the crude oil price.”
The American Petroleum Institute reported an increase in U.S. crude stocks for the week ending October 31, which led to more pressure.
Regarding supply, OPEC+ declared in December that it would increase production by 137,000 barrels per day, but that it would halt additional increases in the first quarter of 2026.
The halt was “unlikely to offer meaningful support to November and December prices,” LSEG analysts warned.
