Biafra Debate: Mike Arnold Predicts Nigeria’s Possible Division

Mike Arnold, a former mayor in the United States, has said that Nigeria’s breakup is “likely inevitable and just.”

Arnold, who is known for being sympathetic to the Biafra struggle, said this in front of members of the US Congress.

Arnold, who is also the founder and chairman of Africa Arise International (Nigeria) and Africa Arise USA, said in his speech “Nigeria at the crossroads: The case for action” that the British colonial masters never wanted Nigeria to succeed.

Arnold called for a “freely-chosen constitutional future” for Nigeria, which would be decided by a referendum by the Nigerian people. He said that this was the only way for Nigeria to get back on track toward peace and development.

“Like so many other British colonial contraptions designed to fail, separation is likely inevitable — and just: Analytical characterization drawing on the colonial-era orchestration of Nigerian federal structure, the Biafran independence question, the 1999 Constitution’s imposition and the persistent structural Northern political dominance documented throughout this briefing.

India-Pakistan (1947), Sudan-South Sudan (2011), the breakup of British Somaliland, and Cyprus are all examples of British colonial partitions that either failed or needed a lot of restructuring. He said, “The official position of Africa Arise International and related initiatives, such as the proposed Covenant Republic framework, is that the Nigerian people should be able to choose their own constitution through a referendum.”

He called the now-defunct Republic of Biafra “the fastest-growing economic region on earth for a decade.”

“According to historical data from the Nigerian Federal Office of Statistics and the World Bank, the economy of eastern Nigeria grew between 1955 and 1965.” He said, “The Eastern Region under Premier Michael Okpara’s development program had some of the highest sustained growth rates in Africa before the Civil War.”

In 1967, the South declared independence. The British helped the North, which cut off the South. They shot down planes from the Red Cross. As many as three million people, mostly children, died of hunger. May 30, 1967, was the day that Biafra declared its independence. The fighting went on until January 1970. There is a lot of evidence that the British government gave the Federal Military Government both money and political support. The federal forces’ food blockade caused a lot of people to starve to death. Estimates of the number of deaths range from 1 million to 5 million, mostly Igbo civilians, with children being the most affected. “During the blockade, several Red Cross and Joint Church Aid relief planes were shot down,” Arnold said. He also said that British support for the Nigerian federal forces made it impossible for Biafra to win.

Arnold rang the alarm that the supposed Christian genocide in Nigeria has gotten worse since US President Donald Trump named Nigeria a Country of Particular Concern (CPC).

“Since Nigeria was designated as a Country of Particular Concern (CPC) under the International Religious Freedom Act on October 31, 2025, killing and impunity have only gotten worse.” Since the designation, there has been more and more violence against Christian communities, such as the March 3 Ngoshe massacre, the Kwara State church attacks, the Palm Sunday Angwan Rukuba massacre, and the April 2026 Jos pastor bounty case.

He spoke out against what he called the deliberate refusal to recognize and help internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Nigeria, which he said met the legal definition of genocide.

Arnold says that the Nigerian government, led by President Bola Tinubu, has denied that there are any displacement camps in Abuja, even though the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) has recorded several of them since 2015. He said that the Nigerian government’s actions have made it necessary for the UNHCR and the International Organization for Migration (IOM) to stop recognizing the IDPs camps.

He says that the Tinubu administration is only paying lip service to the fight against Christian genocide in Nigeria. He also says that the Nigerian government is guilty of genocide because it denies the existence of millions of displaced people, especially young people.

“Current reports from the UNHCR and IOM, as well as communications from the Nigerian government to international bodies, have stopped recognizing many of these same camps.”

Arnold said, “Intent can be inferred from pattern,” which means that “deliberate non-recognition of IDPs combined with denial of humanitarian aid and active obstruction of international assistance, where documented, meets the conditions-of-life standard.”