Tinubu, Atiku, Obi Face Crucial Running Mate Decisions Ahead of 2027

The announcement of vice-presidential candidates by the major political parties has shifted attention to the possible impact of running mates on the outcome of the 2027 presidential election.

With the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) closing nominations, President Bola Tinubu of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) will run for re-election alongside Vice President Kashim Shettima.

Meanwhile, Atiku Abubakar, the presidential candidate of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) and former Vice President, has chosen former Rivers State governor Rotimi Amaechi as his running mate.

The National Democratic Congress (NDC) presidential candidate, Peter Obi, has also picked former Kano State governor, Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, as his running mate.

The emergence of the three tickets has focused attention on the political experience, regional appeal and grassroots support that the running mates are expected to bring to their respective campaigns ahead of the February 2027 presidential election.

The APC has Shettima on the ticket, having served as vice president since 2023. A former governor of Borno State and former senator representing Borno Central, he is expected to play a key role in the party’s efforts to maintain support in the North-East.

Atiku is also from the North-East, which is expected to be a major battleground in the election as he seeks to consolidate his traditional political base.

In the 2023 presidential election, Atiku won Adamawa, Bauchi, Gombe, Taraba and Yobe states, while Tinubu won only Borno State in the zone.

On the ADC ticket, Atiku’s choice of Amaechi has been widely seen as an effort to boost the party’s presence in the South-South and expand its reach across the South-East.

Amaechi, a former Speaker of the Rivers State House of Assembly, a two-term governor and ex-Minister of Transportation, brings decades of political and administrative experience to the ticket.

He was one of the top contenders in the APC presidential primary ahead of the 2023 election, after Tinubu.

Tinubu won Rivers State in the 2023 presidential election, but Peter Obi was the dominant candidate in much of the South-East. Obi also recorded substantial support in parts of the South-South.

Tinubu polled 1,271 votes in the 2023 APC presidential primary, while Amaechi, a former minister and top contender, polled 316 votes. Former Vice President Yemi Osinbajo got 235 votes.

Obi’s selection of Kwankwaso is expected to strengthen the party’s prospects in Northern Nigeria, especially Kano State and parts of the North-West, for the NDC.

Kwankwaso is a former governor and senator of Kano State and is credited with leading the Kwankwasiyya Movement, one of the country’s most influential grass-roots political organisations.

He won the 2023 presidential election in Kano State, defeating the APC, PDP and Labour Party candidates by a large margin.

In the election, Kwankwaso, the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) candidate, took 58.4 per cent of the votes and won the state by almost 440,000 votes, a 26.9 per cent margin of victory over runner-up Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).

The other two main contenders, Tinubu and Peter Obi of the Labour Party, trailed with 7.3 per cent and 1.8 per cent respectively.

But Kwankwaso’s appearance on the ticket followed internal disagreements in the Kwankwasiyya Movement after his squabble with his political godson, Governor of Kano State, Abba Kabir Yusuf, who had defected to the ruling APC.

Policy and political analyst, Suleiman Hassan Gimba said Nigerians should not think elections are won on the basis of personalities on a presidential ticket.

He said presidential elections are decided by several factors such as how people perceive the leadership, how the campaign is organised, financing, security, electoral integrity and voter turnout.

“All three (APC, ADC, and NDC) have chosen people with significant political experience. But experience doesn’t always equal votes. “Now every ticket must convince Nigerians that it provides a credible solution to the country’s economic and security challenges,” he said.

The vice-presidential candidates, according to Gimba, add political structures, strategic advice and regional influence to presidential campaigns but warned against the belief that they could deliver entire states or geopolitical zones single-handedly.

He said Kwankwaso has one of the strongest independent grassroots political movements in the country, while Shettima has administrative experience and knowledge of the North-East and Amaechi has decades of political organisation and executive experience.

“Kwankwaso is the running mate with the strongest independent grassroots political following,” said Dr Christian Okeke, a lecturer in the Department of Political Science at Nnamdi Azikiwe University, Awka.

“The Kwankwasiyya Movement is now a reliable electoral structure that has always proved its political might,” he said.

“I do not want to take away the strength of other vice presidential candidates but I think Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso has the strongest natural grassroot followership. The movement he created has translated into electoral value and is still his greatest political asset,” he added.

“Shettima has the advantage of incumbency, but Amaechi has years of administrative and political experience,” Okeke said.

But he maintained that the success of any presidential ticket would ultimately depend on how effectively the parties mobilise voters and respond to the issues that matter most to Nigerians.

Two other analysts, Peter Fakolujo and Isaac Kekefun, who were former members of the PDP and AD respectively, argued that the political dynamics had changed since Amaechi contested the APC presidential primary and Obi contested the 2023 presidential election on the Labour Party platform.

Fakolujo, who is from Osun State, said it would be difficult for the former Rivers State governor to oust the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Nyesom Wike, from Rivers State where both were governors.

He said, “Amaechi will have to fight even harder to win Rivers State. Wike is on ground in the state. You could see how he prevented the state governor, Siminalayi Fubara, from getting a second term ticket.

“If you go to PDP, Wike is there. In APC, he is also like a land lord. He is the head of all the members of the state House of Assembly. He is even influential at the national level. So Amaechi will really be working to bring in votes for his party and for Atiku.

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“He (Amaechi) could take advantage of the anger of some members of the APC and PDP who are not happy with the way Fubara was treated. They might want to demonstrate their anger through siding with the opposition. Atiku may get a benefit from this situation.”

“Also looking at the South-South, the APC controls the entire region. The APC rules all six states. Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Cross River, Delta, Edo, and Rivers states have all gone to the APC.

“Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa and Rivers were all PDP states until now. “I am sure the governors of the six states will work for the party in their respective states.

Kekefun, from Bayelsa State, agreed with Fakolujo that Amaechi could influence Atiku’s chances.

“But you know that Amaechi is young, vibrant, energetic. He’s a fighter, too. “I am sure he will add value to the ticket for the ADC and Atiku,” he added.

Kekefun also described the selection of Kwankwaso as Obi’s running mate as a strategic move. He said Kwankwaso could deliver votes from the seven states in the North-West, adding that the former Kano governor is still popular in the state.

“Kwankwaso is very popular with a lot of northern Muslim voters. He also has support among young voters. His popularity could bolster Obi’s appeal, as some may not be comfortable with him as president.

“But with a deputy like Kwankwaso, Obi is likely to get more votes from the northern region, especially among northern Muslims,” Kekefun said.

It was argued too that keeping Shettima as Tinubu’s running mate would shield the APC from more controversy over calls for a change in the ticket.

Mallam Abubakar Dahiru said that dropping Shettima for a Christian candidate, as canvassed by some people, could further divide the party.

“So, nothing new to talk about the APC ticket again. All the criticism was made three years ago. Nothing new again, besides the economy and probably security which the administration has to deal with.

“Many Kanuri people and Borno State residents have welcomed the decision. The governor of Borno State, Prof Babagana Zulum, congratulated Shettima. So have some governors of the North. “I am sure they will deliver votes for the APC ticket,” Dahiru said.

He however said the Vice President would have to work harder to convince voters in the North-East to support the APC ticket instead of Atiku, who is also from the region.