World Cup 2026: Scenarios That Could See Nigeria Qualify for CAF Playoffs If South Africa Triumphs

Even though they are now in third position in Group C and will face the Benin Republic in a difficult final match at 5 p.m. today in Uyo, the Nigerian Super Eagles may still have a chance to qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

The Confederation of African Football (CAF), along with FIFA, authorized a significant rule change to rectify the inequities in the qualification process after Eritrea’s departure from Group E, giving the Super Eagles new hope.

Nigeria may have a little advantage in the outcome, which influences the selection of the top four group runners up.

When comparing the second-placed teams across the nine qualification groups, the updated regulation states that points earned against the lowest-ranked club in each group will no longer be taken into account. Since certain groups have fewer teams as a result of withdrawals, CAF clarified that the change is intended to maintain fairness.

The change was approved by CAF Director of Competitions Samson Adamu in a circular on March 14, 2025, stating that it was required to “maintain sporting integrity and ensure balanced comparison” among all teams. “In order to ensure fairness in a competition format impacted by unanticipated team withdrawals, this change is imperative,” Adamu said.

According to FIFA World Cup 2026 Preliminary Competition Regulations Article 11.5, the amendment has the potential to completely change the playoff landscape.

This Rule Change’s Impact on Nigeria
The new system is expected to cause several teams to fall behind. The six points that Burkina Faso, Gabon, DR Congo, and Madagascar earned from their respective bottom-place opponents will be forfeited.

Nigeria, who presently sit at the bottom of Group C, may profit, though, given they only managed two points against Zimbabwe. Nigeria might rise to the top of the second-place standings if Cameroon also drops four points.

Burkina Faso (15 points, fixtures finished) and Gabon (16 points) are leading the battle for the four playoff spots now that the updated calculations are in effect. Cameroon (14 points), DR Congo (13 points), Uganda (12 points), Nigeria (12 points, +3 goal difference), and Niger (15 points, fixtures finished) are vying for the final two spots.

The Super Eagles’ Needed Action
The Super Eagles would rise to 15 points, which would put them among the top second-place teams, if they defeated Benin Republic by a slim 1-0 score or by any two-goal margin, and South Africa also won their match.

However, the fate of other crucial matches throughout the continent will determine the ultimate result:

After finishing their matches, Niger can only wait.
Angola is hosted by Cameroon, who are predicted to win.
DR Congo is the clear favorite to defeat Sudan at home.
Uganda travels to Algeria, a place where winning is unlikely.
The Super Eagles Could Take One of Two Paths
1. Direct Qualification (as Group Winners): Nigeria must defeat Benin Republic by a minimum of two goals (without giving up) and South Africa must lose or draw with Rwanda in order to win Group C altogether.

2. Playoff Qualification: The Super Eagles will not win Group C if South Africa defeats Rwanda and Nigeria defeats Benin Republic. But if other outcomes hold, they might still be able to go in by finishing second in the CAF playoff rankings.

For the time being, Nigeria’s destiny depends on their performance in Yaoundé, Kinshasa, and Algiers in addition to Uyo.

Tonight’s victory might sustain the World Cup dream. If it doesn’t happen, the Super Eagles might miss their first back-to-back tournaments since 1994.