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On September 22 and 23, the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) may progressively reduce the MPR by 50 basis points, according to analysts.
Although the naira has stayed comparatively stable and inflation has continued to decline, they warned that the MPC may reevaluate its present policy position by gradually shifting toward monetary easing.
With important macroeconomic data pointing to increased stability, Cordros Securities analysts contended that the Committee may start a slow shift toward monetary easing.
In order to support economic growth while upholding its commitment to price and exchange rate stability, we anticipate a 50 basis point reduction in the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR).
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The Cordros Researchers stated: “We anticipate the MPC to start reevaluating its current policy stance, supported by sustained improvements in key indicators (inflation and the exchange rate) and a more positive outlook,” in response to the ongoing improvements in key indicators.
After the US Fed lowered interest rates, the Committee is also expected to take into account recent global movements toward monetary easing and the possibility of additional policy accommodation in the near future.
This should help capital flows into frontier and emerging markets, including Nigeria, by providing an extra layer of support that would sustain exchange rate stability.
However, we still anticipate that the Committee will exercise caution in striking a balance between its primary responsibility of preserving price stability and policies that promote growth. To be more precise, we think that any easing will be carefully managed to keep interest rates competitive enough to draw in capital and stabilize inflation expectations.
Consequently, we anticipate that, while keeping other parameters constant, the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) will be lowered by 50 basis points to 27.00% at the meeting next week.
Regarding striking a balance between its primary responsibility of preserving price stability and growth-promoting policies, the analysts stated: “We project that Nigeria’s economy expanded by 3.90% y/y in Q2-25 (Q1-25: +3.13% y/y; Q2-24: +3.48% y/y), supported by solid performances across both the oil and non-oil sectors.” It is predicted that the oil industry grew by 11.90% year over year, with higher crude output (Q2-25: 1.68 mbpd compared to Q2-24: 1.47 mbpd). This expansion was supported by more investment, improved pipeline surveillance, and fewer terminal shut-ins.
As for the non-oil sector, it probably rose by 3.62% year over year (Q1-25: +3.19% year over year), mostly due to a recovery in agriculture (+2.63% year over year compared to Q1-25: +0.07% year over year).
