Nigeria is experiencing a double-barreled economic catastrophe as the price of Brent crude drops to $59.25 per barrel, much below the $75 target for the 2025 budget. Nigerian prints of political art F
The recent occurrence has the potential to completely upend the country’s currency rate stability and income forecasts.
Nigeria may lose up to N19.6 trillion in anticipated oil revenue, according to Nairametrics, as crude production lags at just 1.67 million barrels per day (compared to the budgeted 2.06 million) and the naira depreciates past N1,600/$.
From N13 trillion to an astounding N30.79 trillion, the fiscal deficit might skyrocket. Prints of Nigerian political art
The Central Bank’s ability to protect the naira may be put under pressure if oil prices remain low, according to analysts.
Recent increases in net foreign exchange inflows ($15.2 billion in Q1) might not last if oil receipts keep declining.
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Further threatening to drive down prices is OPEC+’s intention to reintroduce 2.2 million barrels per day by October, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia. Nigeria is still excluded from cartel gains despite its struggles with oil theft and deteriorating infrastructure.
According to Finance Minister Wale Edun, a high-level EMT subcommittee is already working on updated fiscal models, with an emphasis on expanding the tax base, digitizing revenue collection, and increasing oil output.
