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The Senate and the federal government’s economic team are engaged in a high-stakes battle over Nigeria’s N58.47 trillion 2026 budget, which has revealed deep tension over assumptions about oil revenue, mounting debt, and persistent capital implementation failures. The outcome of this battle could change the country’s fiscal direction and political accountability. Reports from Sunday Aborisade.
The yearly appropriation ritual is frequently cloaked with optimism in Nigeria’s volatile fiscal theater. Projections of growth shine. Benchmarks for oil look boldly forward. Revenue goals are presented as inevitable rather than desirable. However, the script drastically faltered last Thursday inside the National Assembly.
The Senate Committee on Appropriations and the federal government’s economic managers had a regular meeting that descended into a heated argument on political accountability, realism, and trustworthiness.
The biggest appropriation bill in the nation’s history, worth N58.472 trillion, was at issue.
Senator Olamilekan Adeola, the committee chairman, spearheaded the legislative effort. Wale Edun, the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, was seated across from Atiku Bagudu, the Minister of Budget and Economic Planning, Doris Uzoka-Anite, the Minister of State for Finance, Zacch Adedeji, the Chairman of the Nigeria Revenue Service, and Shamsedeen Babatunde Ogunjimi, the Accountant General of the Federation.
President Bola Tinubu’s program for economic reform and the question of whether the administration’s high fiscal projections are based on sound math or wishful thinking hung over the discussion.
Nigeria cannot keep passing large budgets based on revenue predictions that consistently fall short of expectations, the Senate said in a glaring and uncompromising complaint.
Adeola reminded the economic team that the administration, not the legislature, was the original author of the 2026 budget paper. Since the income projections, oil benchmarks, and assumptions were executive proposals, they must stand up to scrutiny.
He cited concerning performance disparities in the most recent fiscal cycles. Oil revenue performance dropped to roughly 18 percent in a single year.
In a different case, it was 36.5%, significantly lower than the estimates that supported plans for large spending. These were not merely numbers to legislators. They demonstrated systematic overestimation.
“How can such poor performance be explained?” Adeola asked sharply. “Do we cut this budget or keep it the same?”
The chamber was filled with the echo of the inquiry. The theater was not rhetorical. If the government is unable to offer more robust assurances of revenue realities, the Senate is actively exploring reducing the N58.47 trillion request.
The benchmark of 1.84 million barrels of oil per day, which is part of the 2026 proposal, is at the heart of the conflict. Using the term “stretch target,” Edun argued that challenging standards promote greater performance as opposed to complacency. Fiscal stability would be maintained, he argued, as long as the government did not spend more than it brought in.
As long as we don’t spend what we don’t have, we are safe, Edun stated. “It is a stretch target so that authorities do not settle for lower output.”
But senators are still cautious. Global price volatility, operational inefficiency, pipeline vandalism, and theft have all been problems for Nigeria’s oil industry. A stretch target without accompanying structural guarantees may turn into a financial mirage for legislators.
Beyond estimates, the Senate focused on implementation difficulties, a more politically sensitive topic.
Budgets with large capital spending components are passed year after year to finance development, social services, and infrastructure initiatives. The amount of capital released to Ministries, Departments, and Agencies has consistently been insufficient.
Inquiring about the future of the 2024 and 2025 capital components, Adeola urged the economic team. For what reason did initiatives stall? For what reason were contractors kept waiting? For what reason were allocations created without matching releases?
The committee was not entirely satisfied with Edun’s first response, which stated that fundraising for the capital components was proceeding. Uzoka-Anite was the one who gave more solid guarantees. In order to facilitate timely payout, she revealed that MDAs had been instructed to upload their cash plans for 2025 and that payments for unfinished 2024 capital projects were starting right away.
The mechanism for managing finances is now operational again. She promised, “We are prepared to begin, but the MDAs must finish their documentation needs.
Her commitment was unambiguous: by March 31, 2026, the 2024 and 2025 capital components would be fully implemented.
The promise was welcomed by a legislature weary of constant delays, but it will be evaluated based on execution rather than intent.
In a surprising development, NRS chief Adedeji agreed in principle with the Senate’s concerns about revenue realities. He stated that budget efficiency is about what can be done, not how big the appropriation is.
He cautioned, “If we plan with 100 naira in mind and think we have 10 naira, we will create problems for ourselves.”
His action highlighted a fundamental change in Nigeria’s system of oil revenue.
According to him, the Nigerian National Petroleum business is now a limited liability business under the Petroleum Industry Act.
He emphasized that the government’s net take decreases if production costs increase or operational efficiencies fall. He said that taxes and royalties, rather than direct crude sales, are the main sources of government income from oil production.
According to Adedeji, estimates show that, under the current arrangements, roughly 47% of oil companies’ output gets converted into government money.
Lawmakers pointed out that the ratio emphasizes the necessity of serious revenue estimates and strict expense control.
Spending on security created an additional level of complication. Edun maintained that emergency funds were regularly made available for vital military acquisitions, including those made abroad, and that security had been given first priority in the 2026 plan. He clarified that some of these expenses were within authorized Federation Account limitations even though they would not be readily apparent under traditional classifications.
It is politically impossible to avoid such spending in a country that is struggling with insurgency and pervasive insecurity. However, given the limited financial resources, it faces competition from social welfare, health, education, and infrastructure.
As debt servicing increases, senators are acutely aware that trade-offs become more severe.
In order to minimize the debt portfolio and future borrowing costs, Adeola boldly proposed selling off assets, putting Nigeria’s debt stock at roughly N152 trillion.
He said that lowering the principal could lessen long-term financial strain.
Nigeria’s main problem, Edun said, is not its debt-to-GDP ratio but rather the high cost of debt on global markets.
He maintained that the high interest rates that developing nations face disproportionately raise the cost of borrowing. He revealed that discussions about pricing distortions and debt sustainability are the main topics of a G24 technical group meeting that Nigeria is now chairing.
Still, senators didn’t seem to believe that domestic fiscal difficulties was solely caused by global injustices. They are advocating for more realistic forecasts and stricter fiscal restraint in order to prevent recurring cycles of poor performance.
Edun offered a cautiously upbeat assessment of the economy. “Growth is about four percent,” he remarked. There is a declining tendency in inflation. Reserves abroad are increasing. The stability of the exchange rate is getting better. He pointed to an estimated $20 billion commitment from Shell and a resurgence of investor confidence as proof of reform momentum.
In order to significantly lower poverty and increase opportunity, the administration’s overarching goal is to increase investment to 30% of GDP and accelerate yearly growth to 7%.
Edun noted that more involvement of the private sector in infrastructure will reduce the strain on state borrowing.
However, legislative distrust is still strong. According to senators, macroeconomic metrics need to be translated into real improvements, such as finished roads, completed projects, paid salaries, and a slowdown in household market inflation.
Public discussions lasted for about two hours before the interaction moved behind closed doors. What happened there could influence the 2026 Appropriations Bill’s final design.
Will the executive change its benchmarks for oil? Are revenue forecasts going to be tempered? Will capital implementation be closely watched and ring-fenced? Or will the Senate finally approve the stretch goals while enforcing more stringent oversight procedures?
The National Assembly is undoubtedly resolutely claiming its constitutional jurisdiction over the purse power.
The 2026 budget is more than just a financial statement; it serves as a political yardstick for the legitimacy of the Tinubu administration’s reforms.
Nigeria’s finances are at a precarious crossroads. Although uncertain, oil is still crucial. Despite its size, debt is controllable with discipline. Though not yet complete, reform is in progress.
A fundamental conundrum was encapsulated in the Senate chamber confrontation: can ambition surpass arithmetic?
The N58.47 trillion proposal will either be strengthened and refined, or it will be reduced in the interest of practicality, when parliamentarians examine the figures in the coming weeks. That choice affects not just a budget’s outcome but also Nigeria’s financial future.
