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Despite persistent structural issues, the World Bank has maintained Nigeria’s economic growth prediction at 4.4% for 2027, indicating continued optimism about the nation’s medium-term prognosis.
This is consistent with the forecast previously released in the World Bank’s Nigeria Development Update (NDU) in October 2025, according to the most recent edition of its Global Economic Prospects.
Recall that the most recent report from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) shows that Nigeria’s GDP increased by 3.46% year over year in real terms during the third quarter of 2024.
As macroeconomic conditions improved, the Bretton Woods Institution likewise raised Nigeria’s 2026 growth prediction from 3.7% in its June 2025 Global Economic Prospects report to 4.4%.
Nigeria’s economy is predicted by the World Bank to grow at a rate of 4.4% in 2026 and 2027, which is the fastest growth rate the nation has had in more than ten years.
The report states that a recovery in agricultural production, steady development in the services sector, and a slight acceleration in non-oil industrial activities will be the main drivers of this increase.
The bank stated, “Growth in Nigeria is expected to strengthen to 4.4% in both 2026 and 2027—the fastest pace in over a decade.”
The Bank further stated that during the course of the projection period, enhanced agricultural output and ongoing service expansion would continue to be the fundamental pillars sustaining economic performance.
According to the World Bank, continued economic reforms—especially in the tax system—along with cautious monetary policy are anticipated to boost macroeconomic stability and encourage economic development.
“Continued prudent monetary policy and economic reforms, including in the tax system, are expected to support activity.”
The Bank stated that these policy changes should “improve investor sentiment and reduce inflation further.” According to the World Bank, “higher oil output is anticipated to offset lower international oil prices this year, helping to boost fiscal revenues and strengthen the external balance.”
Nigeria’s efforts to diversify its economy and lessen its reliance on crude oil exports are gradually having an impact, as evidenced by the continued emphasis on non-oil growth.
Over time, increased agricultural productivity and a more robust services sector might help stabilize prices, provide employment, and increase the government’s tax base.
The World Bank’s prediction gives investors and policymakers some assurance that, despite the nation’s ongoing economic risks, recent changes may start to produce noticeable outcomes.
Additionally, the World Bank predicted that Sub-Saharan Africa’s GDP will accelerate to 4.3% in 2026 thanks to solid domestic investment, economic reforms, and declining regional inflation.
The Bank anticipates that the global economy will continue to be robust, with growth slowing slightly to 2.6% in 2026 before increasing to 2.7% in 2027—an increase from its June prediction.
Even while geopolitical and climate-related risks are still high, the improving global picture is a result of declining inflation, stabilizing financial conditions, and better-than-expected performance in a number of emerging and developing economies.
