Nigerian Stock Exchange Records 50% YTD Gain, Market Cap at N98.4 Trillion

As renewed investor demand increased market capitalization by N542 billion in a single session, the Nigerian stock market maintained its bullish momentum at the beginning of the week, extending its year-end surge.

With year-to-date (YTD) returns reaching 50% for the first time since late October, the benchmark index returned to a significant milestone as a result of the advance, which was mostly fueled by positioning ahead of the new year.

The All-Share Index (ASI) closed at 154,389.53 points, up 849.70 points, or 0.55 percent, at the end of trade. Concurrently, the market’s overall capitalization increased to N98.432 trillion, demonstrating the strength of the revitalized confidence that permeates the market despite modest trading volumes.

Strong price growth in a variety of large- and mid-cap equities, especially in the consumer goods and financial services industries, served as the rally’s main driver.

Guinness Nigeria, BUA Foods, UACN, Ecobank Transnational Incorporated (ETI), and Eunisell Interlinked were notable drivers of the day’s gain, indicating a definite preference for fundamentally sound firms as investors adjust portfolios ahead of 2026.

According to market observers, the most recent surge supports the story of a robust Nigerian equities market, which is bolstered by strengthening macroeconomic indicators and careful bargain hunting after periods of profit-taking earlier in the quarter.

United Capital Plc predicts that the market will remain cautiously optimistic in the coming days. The investment firm stated in a note that “the Nigerian equity market is likely to trade cautiously positive this week, supported by steady GDP growth, strong external reserves, and broad-based sector gains.”

“While profit-taking may limit sharp rallies, investors will focus on fundamentally strong stocks in consumer goods, banking, and industrials.”

Wide-ranging Gains Increase Market Sentiment

Gainers just outweighed losses, and the market’s breadth indicated improving mood. In contrast to 37 decliners, 41 equities closed in positive territory, indicating widespread participation as opposed to a rise spearheaded by a few heavyweights.

The top gainers were Austin Laz & Company and Ecobank Transnational Incorporated, which both closed at N3.52 and N41.80 after increasing by the maximum 10%. As fresh interest in mid-cap names continued to pick up steam, Eunisell Interlinked followed closely, gaining by 9.95 percent to close at N96.70 per share.

Among the top performers were consumer goods stocks as well. Guinness Nigeria rose 9.82 percent to close at N349.90 a share, while Honeywell Flour Mills gained 9.86 percent to conclude at N19.50.

The sector’s impressive performance indicates that investors are getting ready for better earnings projections thanks to potential demand rebound and lessening cost pressures.

But there were some areas of weakness during the session, especially with smaller-cap equities. Leading the roster of losses was International Energy Insurance, which closed at N2.34 after losing 10%. Following with decreases of 9.92 percent each, Meyer and eTranzact International closed at N11.35 each.

C&I Leasing lost 8.06 percent to settle at N5.70 a share, while Livestock Feeds experienced selling pressure and fell 9.60 percent to N5.65.

Rather than a fundamental change in market sentiment, analysts blamed the decline in several stocks on profit-taking and portfolio rebalancing.

Trading activity decreased during the day despite the impressive headline performance, indicating a more selective approach by market players. With 47,892 transactions, the total trading volume fell by 16.98 percent to 1.468 billion units, valued at N35.544 billion.

With 594.38 million shares valued at N12.362 billion, Access Holdings dominated the activity chart, highlighting the ongoing interest in the banking industry as investors look for exposure to companies with robust capital buffers and earnings stability.

The FCMB Group reported trades of 116.61 million shares valued at N1.26 billion, while Champion Breweries followed with 122.09 million shares worth N1.84 billion. First HoldCo made transactions in 51.53 million shares worth N2.57 billion, while Japaul Gold & Ventures swapped 66.16 million shares worth N155.25 million.

Market observers observe that the dip in volume, along with rising prices, is typical of times when investors take a wait-and-see stance, especially as the year comes to a finish and focus turns to corporate actions, audited results, and dividend expectations.

Particularly after weeks of correction, the recovery of the ASI’s YTD performance to 50% is a significant psychological lift for the market. It also emphasizes how resilient Nigerian stocks are to both domestic macroeconomic changes and worldwide concerns.

Analysts anticipate that sentiment will continue to be positive in the future due to stable external reserves, prospects of steady GDP growth, and growing clarity over the course of monetary and fiscal policy.

However, they warn that sporadic profit-taking could limit short-term gains, especially in equities that have seen significant increases in recent weeks.

It is anticipated that investors will continue to prioritize fundamentally sound businesses with robust balance sheets, pricing power, and earnings clarity as they reposition into 2026.

Market participants think the stock market might maintain its upward bias into the new year if macroeconomic stability keeps improving, albeit with more volatility and selectivity.

As the year draws to a close, the beginning rally signals cautious optimism and strengthens the Nigerian Exchange’s position as one of the region’s better-performing markets.

NGX Chairman: In 2026, New Listings Will Double Market Cap

Alhaji (Dr.) Umaru Kwairanga, Chairman of NGX Group Plc, is optimistic that the total value of the Nigerian equity market (market capitalization) can double in 2026 due to the possible listing of the 650,000 barrels per day Dangote Petroleum Refinery and other significant economic players in the upcoming year.

With the composite NGX All-Share Index returning a strong 50% between January and the end of trading on Monday, December 29, 2025, he anticipates that the market would be riding on the positive momentum of the previous year.

Dr. Kwairanga was given access to an article titled “2025 Capital Market Review and a Forward-Looking Agenda for 2026,” which commended the capital market for its crucial role in mobilizing long-term financing of roughly N6.34 trillion in new listings, bolstered by the strategic bank recapitalization efforts that conclude on March 31, 2026.

He states, “By December 24, the Exchange’s overall turnover on equities more than doubled year-over-year activity, confirming increased market engagement.” About 79–80% of transaction value came from domestic investors, while foreign investors contributed roughly 21% of overall turnover. This indicates both growing offshore interest and local trust.

In a similar vein, the total value of stocks, debt instruments, and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) listed on the NGX as of December 2025 was over N149.88 trillion, a significant increase from the previous year. Approximately 65.31% of the total capitalization of approximately N98 trillion came from equities, which continued to be the dominant sector.

He said that broad-based sectoral strength, robust corporate profitability, and investor hunger for fundamentally sound businesses—particularly in the banking, consumer, industrial, and telecommunications sectors—all contributed to this development.

According to him, the Nigerian capital market performed admirably in 2025 thanks to the implementation of reforms, stronger corporate actions, and resilient market participation.

“As Chairman of NGX Group Plc, I am certain that the foundations established this year will put our market in a position to take advantage of more opportunities in 2026 and beyond. In order to create a more comprehensive, inclusive, and globally appealing capital market ecosystem, investors, regulators, and market operators must continue to work together, he said.

In addition to significant year-over-year increases in foreign portfolio investment (FPI) into the NGX, he pointed out that this demonstrated high issuer confidence and investor receptivity, “with certain reporting periods showing double-digit growth in offshore trading activity and flows.”

“However, foreign investor engagement is limited by persistent macroeconomic uncertainty, exchange rate dynamics, and policy ambiguity around aspects like capital gains tax, with foreign participation remaining modest in relation to domestic activity, averaging roughly 20–21% of total turnover in recent months.”