Peter Obi Faces Doubt In Northern Nigeria Despite Kwankwaso’s Political Influence, Says Muhammad, Ibrahim

A political alliance between former Labour Party presidential candidate, Peter Obi, and the leader of the Kwankwasiyya movement, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, is already generating new talks ahead of the 2027 presidential election.

While none of the two politicians has emerged as the official presidential candidate of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), the two are being tipped as the preferred candidates to contest the ruling party and other strong opposition parties at the next election cycle.

Political analysts say the talks are mainly motivated by the electoral realities of the 2023 presidential election where both candidates recorded impressive but regionally limited performances.

Obi garnered more than six million votes across the country on the platform of the Labour Party and won 11 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT). However, in the northern region, his victories were restricted to Plateau and Nasarawa states, as well as the FCT, where he had significant support.

Mr Kwankwaso, who ran under the banner of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), won Kano State and got close to one million votes further cementing his influence in the North-West.

The proposed alliance is now raising questions whether Kwankwaso’s northern political structure could be used by Obi to improve his acceptability across the region in 2027.

In an exclusive interview, political analyst and lecturer at the Aliko Dangote University of Science and Technology, Professor Murtala Muhammad said the appeal of Obi in the North during the 2023 election was largely at the level of urban centres among the youth and among citizens looking for alternatives to the major political parties.

During the 2023 presidential election, Peter Obi showed some electoral strength in parts of Northern Nigeria, especially in Abuja and among urban youths, middle-class voters and citizens who are dissatisfied with the traditional political establishment,” he said.

He said electoral trends showed that Obi’s strongest support base was outside the North.

“Electoral analyses show his northern vote share at around 14 per cent compared to over 40 per cent in Southern Nigeria,” said Muhammad.

He said while an alliance with Kwankwaso could boost Obi’s chances in Kano and some parts of the North-West, it may not affect the overall regional voting pattern significantly.

He added that a possible alliance with Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso could make Obi more competitive, especially in Kano with the Kwankwasiyya movement, but this does not automatically translate into mass support in the north.

He claimed that throughout much of the North-West, voting behaviour is still influenced by religion, regional identity, party loyalty over time and local politics.

“So, many northern voters may still be reluctant to support Obi despite Kwankwaso’s endorsement, and it is analytically wrong to assume that Kwankwaso’s northern identity alone can deliver the larger North-West voting bloc to Obi,” he said.

Also commenting on the development, Kano-based politician and State House of Assembly aspirant, Aminu Abdullahi Ibrahim, said Obi has been able to get more visibility among the northern youths than at the last election.

“I think Peter Obi has attained a certain level of popularity in some parts of northern Nigeria, especially among the young people, urban voters, Christians of the North-Central region and those Nigerians who are fed up,” Ibrahim said.

But he said Obi remains under strong political constraints in the core North-West states, where entrenched political structures still rule.

His popularity in the core North-West, especially in states like Kano, Katsina, Jigawa, Kebbi, Sokoto and Zamfara, still remains limited relative to well-established northern political figures like Atiku Abubakar,” he added.

But even with those limitations, a merger between both politicians could still form a stronger opposition platform than what was present in the 2023 election, Ibrahim said.

That said, if Peter Obi and Kwankwaso eventually form a political alliance ahead of future elections, it could make a difference from 2023,” he said.

Any serious challenge in 2027 would be on something more than popularity or online support, he said.

“They need strong grassroots mobilization, party cohesion, trusted local structures, balancing of religious and ethnic interests and ability to protect votes across polling units. “Even if Obi and Kwankwaso join forces, it will still be a huge task to turn the public enthusiasm into a national electoral victory,” said Ibrahim.

With coalition talks ongoing, analysts say the success of any Obi-Kwankwaso partnership may ultimately hinge on whether both politicians can translate their individual regional strengths into a truly national political movement that can compete across Nigeria’s diverse electoral landscape.