Tinubu’s Targeted Reforms and the Changing Direction of Nigeria

Three years on, President Bola Tinubu’s administration is quietly but steadily reshaping Nigeria’s trajectory through targeted reforms aimed at strengthening security, revitalising production and restoring national confidence, writes Linus Aleke.

Three years into President Bola Tinubu’s administration, a review of his stewardship continues to attract heated public debate. Such scrutiny is both inevitable and healthy in a democracy as complex and diverse as Nigeria. Yet a broader look at progress in key sectors, away from partisan rhetoric and the daily torrent of politics, shows a record of significant achievement. The administration has launched reforms in areas ranging from security and crude oil production to agriculture and education, which are slowly reshaping the face of governance and national development.

President Tinubu took office in May 2023, inheriting a difficult security landscape. The country was engulfed in terrorism in the North-East, banditry in the North-West, separatist violence in parts of the South-East, widespread kidnapping and criminality in several regions, as well as large scale crude oil theft in the Niger Delta.

Faced with these multiple threats, the administration embarked on a mission to strengthen the nation’s security architecture, knowing that steady economic growth and national prosperity cannot thrive in an environment of insecurity. The government’s response has centred on greater intelligence gathering, more funding for military operations, better inter-agency collaboration and the acquisition of modern security assets.

And they say these efforts have been apparent in a variety of operational theatres. Speaking on the achievements recorded by the Armed Forces of Nigeria, Director of Defence Media Operations, Major General Michael Onoja, said: “The operational outcomes recorded across all theatres of operation during the period are irrefutable and a resounding testament to the strategic clarity, combat effectiveness and institutional resolve of the Armed Forces of Nigeria. The AFN has exhibited a comprehensive and expanding operational capacity that decisively confronts the entire array of challenges facing the country, ranging from the sustained neutralisation of Boko Haram/ISWAP formations in the North East, the interdiction of bandit networks across the North West, the rescue of over a hundred kidnapped civilians across the North Central, the dismantling of illegal arms manufacturing networks, the seizure of sophisticated oil-theft convoys in the South South, to the systematic degradation of separatist criminal elements in the South East. A total of 317 terrorists/criminals were neutralised, 314 suspects were arrested, 221 civilians rescued, 18 terrorists surrendered, 93 arms were recovered, three illegal refining sites destroyed while 21,910 litres of assorted petroleum products were recovered.”

Outside these specific operational achievements, the Defence Headquarters has released figures showing that during sustained military offensives, thousands of terrorists and criminal elements have been neutralised, arrested or forced to surrender. Security agencies have also freed thousands of kidnap victims and dismantled many criminal syndicates around the country. Armed forces have kept up relentless pressure on groups that once operated with alarming impunity and controlled vast territories, although serious security challenges remain.

The impact of these efforts can be seen in Nigeria’s standing on global security indices as well. Nigeria’s ranking improved considerably between 2020 and 2024, according to the Global Terrorism Index. The country has moved from eighth position in 2024 to sixth in 2025, but it is still in a much better situation than when it was one of the three or four countries most affected by terrorism in the world. That means that the overall direction has been more positive than is often depicted, despite occasional setbacks.

Nowhere is the nexus between security and economic development more apparent than the oil and gas sector. The country was deprived of billions of dollars in revenue due to crude oil theft, pipeline vandalism and sabotage while investor confidence was eroded for years. The large scale theft of crude oil, masterminded by sophisticated criminal networks and local collaborators, is one of the most harmful economic leakages in Nigeria’s history.

Against this backdrop, the administration stepped up efforts to protect critical oil infrastructure. Illegal bunkering activities have been significantly curtailed in key production areas through coordinated action involving security agencies, private surveillance contractors and local stakeholders. This has led to a steady recovery in crude oil output.

Major General Emmanuel Emekah, the General Officer Commanding 6 Division, Nigerian Army and Land Component Commander of the Joint Task Force, South South, Operation Delta Safe, gave an insight into the development, saying that improved security situation has allowed crude oil production to rebound to about 2.2 million barrels per day.

Speaking during a Defence Correspondents’ visit to the Area of Responsibility of Operation Delta Safe, Major General Emekah reiterated the military’s commitment to supporting the Federal Government’s target of achieving daily crude oil production of three million barrels by 2027.

He said that the security situation in the Niger Delta had improved tremendously, allowing residents of riverine communities to return to fishing and other legitimate means of livelihood without fear.

“The Niger Delta is still the backbone of the Nigerian economy and the performance of the oil and gas sector is a critical indicator of our operational effectiveness,” he said.

He said that since he took over command on 24 January 2025, Operation Delta Safe had not recorded any incident of violent pipeline vandalism in its area of responsibility.

Major General Emekah said: “Prior to this, crude oil production was ranging between 1.4 million and 1.5 million barrels per day. But output rose steadily to around 2.2 million barrels per day by December 2025 after a presidential order to boost production. “We are working hard to maintain and build on this figure.”

He added that no oil company operating within the area had reported any pipeline breach due to vandalism from January, 2025 to date.

Data available from the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission further reinforce this narrative, showing that Nigeria’s oil output has improved compared with previous years, when production frequently fell below expectations because of theft and operational disruptions. Higher production has increased government revenues, improved foreign exchange earnings and strengthened Nigeria’s position in the global energy market.

The improvement in security has also helped investor confidence. The announcement of major investment commitments worth billions of dollars for offshore and deep-water projects highlight the growing faith in the government’s efforts to provide a stable, secure and investment-friendly operating environment.

Commenting on these developments, Minister for Marine and Blue Economy, Adegboyega Oyetola said the significance of such investments transcends the oil and gas sector.

“These investments,” he said, “are crucial not only to increase oil and gas production, but also to bolster the wider blue economy through port development, maritime services, local content participation and job creation.” “The investor interest is increasing because regulatory clarity has improved and the government is continuously working to create a safe, efficient and investment-friendly maritime environment,” he added.

Outside the energy sector, the administration has aimed to reposition agriculture as a key driver of economic growth, food security and rural development. Agriculture also remains a key component of the government’s wider economic vision, given the sector’s strategic importance to national prosperity.

The sector is vital for livelihoods and economic stability as Nigeria’s largest employer of labour. To boost productivity and strengthen domestic food production, the government has used targeted interventions, support programmes and expanded access to financing. Focus has also been on enhancing agricultural value chains, promoting mechanisation and empowering smallholder farmers who continue to be at the heart of the sector’s success.

The structural reforms happening cannot be ignored, while rising food prices still exert significant pressure on households. The administration’s focus on expanding cultivation, supporting farmers and reducing dependence on food imports is indicative of a long-term strategy aimed at achieving sustainable food security. The significance of such measures in addressing agricultural productivity challenges in developing economies has been consistently emphasized by international institutions such as the World Bank and the Food and Agriculture Organisation.

The administration also tried to leave a legacy in education. For several years, financial difficulties have prevented many young Nigerians with talent from accessing tertiary education, forcing many to give up their studies or suffer great hardship in their quest for academic development.

One of the most important intervention of the administration in this respect is the creation of the Nigerian Education Loan Fund (NELFUND). For the first time, large numbers of students can access structured financial support to pursue higher education and vocational training without the immediate burden of tuition costs. The scheme has already affected hundreds of thousands of students and could be one of the most transformative educational reforms Nigeria has seen in recent times.

Besides student financing, the government has also demonstrated its commitment to strengthening technical and vocational education. This is an acknowledgment that modern economies need practical skills, innovation and entrepreneurship as well as traditional academic qualifications. By expanding educational opportunities and investing in human capital development, the administration is helping to build the foundation for a more competitive and productive workforce.

The economic hardships associated with major policy reforms such as the elimination of fuel subsidies and the unification of foreign exchange rates are often cited by critics of the administration. These concerns are understandable and well worth serious consideration. We cannot look away from the inflationary pressures and the rising cost of living that millions of Nigerians are grappling with.

But it is equally important to realize that deep-rooted structural distortions often require difficult reforms. International financial institutions like the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank have repeatedly argued that subsidy regimes and multiple exchange-rate systems impose heavy burdens on public finances, while discouraging investment and economic efficiency. The real test of these reforms will not be their pain in the short term but their results in the long term.

History shows that nation-building is seldom accomplished by popular decisions alone. More often it takes courage, strategic vision and the resolve to face down entrenched challenges. Three years into his presidency, Tinubu has demonstrated a willingness to tackle issues that past administrations kicked down the road or approached with trepidation.

There is much work to be done, but the administration’s track record in security, energy, agriculture and education provides concrete evidence of progress. Military operations have disrupted criminal networks and enhanced national security. Crude oil production has rebounded after years of decline. Agricultural reforms are aimed at enhancing food security and rural livelihoods and educational initiatives are opening up more opportunities for future generations.

No government can change a country overnight. Yet meaningful and lasting progress is often the result of deliberate policies, sustained commitment and a clear sense of purpose. As Nigeria continues its journey towards stability, prosperity and national renewal, the achievements recorded by the Tinubu administration over the past three years suggest that the country may indeed be moving steadily towards a more secure, productive and hopeful future.