Now That Buhari Is Gone, Who Will His12 Millions of Loyal Fans Follow?

Following the death of Muhammadu Buhari, Nigeria is dealing with more than simply the loss of a former leader. It is seeing the silent dissolution, or even the remaking, of a powerful political cult: a devoted group of more than 12 million Nigerians who viewed Buhari as a messianic symbol and moral leader in addition to a politician.

This support base was stable for two election cycles. They voted regardless of the weather, the state of the economy, or the stability of the country. Then they defended. They felt that. Across the northern heartland, Buhari’s image—austere, disciplined, and rooted in religion—resonated strongly. Not only was he Mai Gaskiya, or “the honest one,” to many, but he was also Baba, a man of sacrifice, a reflection of their anguish, and a guardian of their dreams.

The question now is straightforward but profound: Who gets this loyalty?

Buhari’s emotional and symbolic appeal is so great that it would be a mistake to think that these 12 million Nigerians will merely switch to the current APC or mindlessly follow the next northern contender. There was more to his popularity than the party. Persona was the key. No northern politician in recent history, not even Atiku, Kwankwaso, or any of the present governors, has been able to garner such admiration.

This vacuum matters.

Nigerian politics, particularly since 1999, have frequently focused on “structures.” But Buhari has more than just a solid foundation. It has to do with identity, sentiment, and memory. It combined his perceived thrift, his combat experience, and his religious authority to create a powerful story. The notion persisted even after he failed as a leader. Voters stood in line for hours to support that illusion.

What person enters that area now?

The Bola Despite his present control over Aso Rock, Ahmed Tinubu lacks the emotional clout Buhari possessed in the north. Rather than mythology, his political power is found in machines. Despite his years of ambition, Atiku Abubakar has consistently fallen short of Buhari’s ability to build the trust of the people in the north. Though it is more of a Kano cult than a northern one, Kwankwaso has a movement known as the Kwankwasiyya.

Will 2023’s unexpected force, Peter Obi, be able to gain traction here? Likely. Early Buhari storylines are echoed in his anti-corruption rhetoric, emphasis on caution, and outsider position. Nevertheless, it is also unclear if Obi can emotionally and culturally relate to Buhari’s supporters, who frequently associate political trust with similar geography, religious beliefs, and symbolic meanings. A few viral videos in the dialect of Arewa might not be sufficient.

In actuality, Buhari’s passing might signal the start of a political dispersal rather than a transfer of power. His supporters might split off, with some going into apathy, some forming new coalitions, and still others becoming nostalgic and conservative as they wait for the next “pure” leader to come along.

The politics of 2027 might change as a result of this division. It is possible that northern votes would no longer be delivered in unison if Buhari is not a unifying figure. Power brokers may suddenly find the landscape less predictable, as they previously depended on Buhari’s reputation.

This presents both opportunity and risk for Nigeria.

Danger, as a lack of authority frequently leads to opportunism, dissension, and manipulation. opportunity as well—to create a new politics based on principles, responsibility, and programs rather than personality cults.

However, one cannot minimize the significance of Nigerian emotional politics. The legend of Buhari might outlive both his administration and himself. The legacy of Buhari in the north may serve as a benchmark for many years, much like that of Awolowo in the southwest or Zik in the east. To command that same trust is the task for any successor, not just to step into his shoes.

Politically, his 12 million supporters are currently without a leader. One of the key uncertainties in Nigerian politics today is whether they will find a new home or become the decisive factor in the upcoming election.

Kano is home to writer and educator Olu Allen. His contributions include comments on Nigerian politics, society, and culture.