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Nigeria’s struggling revenue profile is set for a rise as Brent crude yesterday, rose above $100 a barrel for the first time in nearly two months, hitting $100.69 over escalating attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea deepen concerns that the Middle East supply crisis is spreading beyond the Strait of Hormuz.
Nigeria’s 2026 federal budget is pegged on an oil price benchmark of $64.85 per barrel and targeted crude oil production of 1.84 million barrels per day.
The latest crude oil price increase is an increase of $36.42 per barrel over the projected oil price benchmark of $64.85.
Front-month Brent for September delivery was trading at $100.69 a barrel by mid-morning Thursday, up more than seven per cent on the day after hitting an intraday high of $101.01. WTI was also sharply higher. The whole Brent forward curve pushed higher as traders factored in a greater risk of extended supply disruptions.
The latest leg higher comes after claims by the Houthis that the group attacked two Saudi oil tankers in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, after declaring a naval blockade of Saudi exports earlier this week. Several vessels have reportedly changed course or delayed transits through the chokepoint, threatening the export route. Saudi Arabia has relied on to prevent disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.”
The move is another escalation for a market that had spent weeks betting geopolitical risk would ease. Now Brent has risen about 20 per cent in around two weeks as repeated attacks on commercial shipping, renewed fighting involving Iran and mounting export disruptions have steadily wiped out hopes of a quick return to normal oil flows.
The rally is no longer solely driven by fears surrounding Hormuz. Kazakhstan has begun to reduce oil output after drone attacks halted tanker loadings at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal on the Black Sea. Indian state refiners have halted loading of Iraqi crude over risks to shipping through Hormuz. Russian fuel exports are still limited after months of Ukrainian drone attacks on refineries.
Futures are tightening, and so is the physical market. Governments across the world have already released hundreds of millions of barrels from strategic reserves since the Middle East conflict began, commercial stocks have plunged and China has cut imports by tapping stockpiles accumulated prior to the war. Those buffers are gradually eroding.
The market is once again in territory many analysts thought had been avoided with Brent back in triple digits after the memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran briefly reopened hopes for a normalization of Middle East exports. But those hopes have rapidly unraveled as the conflict has spread from Hormuz to the Red Sea, threatening two of the world’s most important oil shipping routes at the same time.














