Quartus Economics: Nigeria’s Economic Growth Surpasses Population Rate

There are early signs of a turnaround in Nigeria’s economy, with output now growing faster than population growth – a development that could mark the start of sustained poverty reduction if it continues.

That is the key message from a new report from Quartus Economics highlighting a sharp rebound in the country’s economic performance in 2025 after a difficult 2024.

The economic research firm said that in terms of US dollar, Nigeria’s gross domestic product (GDP) increased from $252.1 billion in 2024 to $307.5 billion in 2025, a growth of 21.98 percent. At the same time, GDP per person rose 19.5 percent from $1,083 to $1,295, despite continued population growth.

Nominal GDP increased in naira terms from N372.8 trillion in 2024 to N441.5 trillion in 2025.

The report relies on official data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), exchange rate figures from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and comparative data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

GROWTH FINALLY OUTSTRIPS POPULATION
The results show one major highlight: Nigeria’s economic growth is now outpacing its population growth. This is a reversal of a long-standing trend that has historically hindered improvements in living standards.

Advertisement Nigeria’s population grew 2.1 percent in 2025, adding an estimated 4.8 million people. But, even as GDP increased by some 22 percent in dollar terms, average economic output per person still grew substantially.

“For years, Nigeria has struggled to grow its economy faster than its population,” the report stated. “This pattern has now been reversed, opening the way for real reductions in poverty.”

The economy grew less than 1 percent in total between 2020 and 2023; the population grew more than 10 percent. During the same period, population growth was roughly 4.25 percent, compared to more than 8 per cent growth in economic output between 2024 and 2025.

Stronger Money, Greater Output

The report credits the improved showing to a mix of higher output and modest gains on the currency. Nigeria’s nominal GDP grew by 18.43 percent from N372.8 trillion in 2024 to N441.5 trillion in 2025.

Meanwhile, the naira gained about 3 per cent on average from N1,479 per dollar in 2024 to N1,436 in 2025. This double impact helped to raise the country’s GDP, expressed in US dollars, a major point of reference for world-wide comparisons.

Economists say currency stability is especially important for household welfare because it helps preserve real incomes and asset values.

BEATING THE REGIONAL PEERS

And Nigeria’s growth rates compare favourably with many other economies in Sub-Saharan Africa. The region’s average GDP growth was 10.33 percent in dollar terms and 7.66 percent in per capita terms but Nigeria’s figures were much higher.

Ghana was the only major African economy to register a better improvement with a GDP growth of 37.7 percent. In terms of overall and per capita growth, Nigeria was ahead of countries such as South Africa, Egypt, Algeria, Kenya and Morocco.

The trend isn’t just in the continent. Nigeria’s GDP grew faster than some other emerging markets such as Bangladesh, Indonesia, Thailand and Mexico, the report said.

IMPLICATIONS FOR POVERTY MITIGATION

The report says that despite high poverty levels, there are “modest but clear signs of progress” driven by three main factors: currency stability, rising economic output and a better alignment between population and GDP growth.

“Prosperity is not a matter of fiat,” the think tank said, pointing out that sustained gains require continued expansion in productive sectors and maintaining macroeconomic stability.

The importance of currency stability as a driver was also established. In previous years, sharp devaluations had eroded incomes and increased poverty. The report said the recent stability of the naira is a more conducive environment for wealth creation and better living standards.

‘OPTIMISTIC PRUDENT’

The outlook is positive, but Nigeria’s per capita income is still below historical peaks and trails several peer economies, Quartus Economics noted. But it’s a positive trend.

“There is strong evidence that Nigeria’s economic fortune is on the rise once again,” the report said. “This time the lift will hold. It must hold.”

Analysts say the coming years will be a test of whether the country can consolidate those gains and translate improvements in the macroeconomy into tangible reductions in poverty among its fast-growing population.